New Video Tonight / Should we have chased today?

Hello Patrons, 

I'm currently composing TexMex guitar for a full account video of the May 4th family of tornadoes.  This video indulges requests for longer cuts and entire chases, though I jump cut the less exciting moments.  With some uncertainty I'm currently crediting myself with 6 tornadoes for the day, not including many long lived gustnado type periphery spin-ups.  This number may go down in the future as some of these tornadoes might be lumped into one longer tracking tornado.  Here they are... 

Number one, a weak dusty tube made possible by the exceptional drought Texas is currently experiencing.  Had there been any moisture on the ground, this would not have been revealed and tallied.

Number two was the Big Red.  Say hello to fellow Patron Marcus for making a cameo in this shot.  Be sure and watch his video he posted in our community section. 

Number three might arguably be tallied as an extension of number two.  The several minutes without strong ground circulation and overall different characteristics of this long lived fully condensed white tornado has me subjectively defining them as two separate tornadoes. 

Number 4 was the game of chicken I posted in the last video.  Ultimately, the tornado won. 

Number 5 was a similar tube hiding in my blind spot.  Luckily my rear security cam captured it. It still haunts me that I didn't pull over and capture it with better cameras. It would have been awesome. 

And number 6, slash the reason I didn't notice number 5, was because all my attention was focused on a developing mile wide wedge.  This was the tornado that impacted Lockett Texas and blew the windows out of a storm chasing tour van.  Note tornado 5 still in this shot as well. 

CHASING TARGET TODAY

My forecast for today uncovered significant tornado parameters near Wichita Kansas.  The NAM model has been resolving a storm in this atmosphere as well, however the HRRR has not.  The WindBreaker was packed and ready to depart for Kansas until the 1AM SPC outlook was issued. The SPC did not even include my target area within their 2% tornado risk...???

I tend to trust the SPC over my analysis, but if I miss a discrete storm in Kansas today, that trust will be shattered.   Dr Anton, Dr Tracie, Daniel Shaw and many more are out there risking sunburn today.  

The SPC and HRRR continues to say nay while the NAM continues to say yay.  I've felt that the HRRR has been spooky accurate there last 2 months and the NAM not so much.  FYI, these models are constantly updated / tweaked.   Once you get used to how they perform they're changed ... but ultimately for the better in theory. 

Thanks again guys!  hope to upload this video tonight or tomorrow.  The next week doesn't look great for tornado loving freaks, but that can change with the flap of a butterfly wings.  Perhaps Friday will offer something near the Red River.  

xox