So You're Saying There's a Chance?

Low tornado probabilities currently appear Sunday and Monday… 

SUNDAY late afternoon and evening, temperatures may come close to 90F in Southern Nebraska. A sharp dryline should develop with dews in the upper 50s. 

* High temperatures and low dew points are not favorable for tornadoes.  We call this the TD spread (T - Temps, D - Dew points, Spread - difference) This is a good indication for high based storms. 

*** Bases are the bottoms of storms.  When they're high, you can often see much more of a lightning flash.   

Per the Nam, Storms may initiate around 5pm and perhaps propagate toward the Sioux Falls South Dakota vicinity. 

* the Nam is a popular weather model. I tend to use the Nam, the HRRR and the GFS the most.  When they all resolve similar patterns, we tend to say we have high confidence in the scenario unfolding. When they all disagree, we say we have low confidence... kinda like with our Senate XD.  

60 knot Upper level winds overspread the area well into Iowa bringing ample shear for supercells. If higher moisture can advect into the area, the tornado potential may bump up.

* "Advection" is a neato term we use that describes the transfer of an airmass and its properties horizontally... So a gulf airmass moving toward Nebraska will generally advect / bring higher dew points northward. 

Thank goodness Jo and I have a gig in Houston Sunday night so I have an excess not to waste fuel.

* (7-9pm at Cowboy Surfer Lounge) 

MONDAY  the LOW over New Mexico will assemble ingredients for storms in my backyard. Temps in the upper 70s and Dews well into the 70s may set the stage for an ugly rando sloshy supercell with storm bases about as high as a basketball goal.  

* Surface temperatures at 77F and Dew Points at 73F are very low TD spreads... Horribly low.  This suggests that storm bases will also be very, very low.  Tornadoes can love this as they don't have to work so hard to reach the ground (Surface), but it's hell trying to see them.    

Currently, this set up looks like another slam dunk for wasting fuel... However it is very close to home.

I'll be watching Monday and Tuesday for possible changes.  Meanwhile I'll continue to edit Part 2 of my Moorea vacation and compose the orchestration for my new songs.  Hoping to have about 10 songs off the desk by March... Just over 4 months away!!! 

xox

h