Active Week of Severe Weather

Hello Patrons,

An active week of severe weather appears to be in the mix. Today there's a 5% tornado risk in Oklahoma and tomorrow there's currently a 10% risk in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys. It appears I will have to suffer missing both of these events due to poor timing with prior commitments. Never commit to ANYTHING during tornado season!!!

Tonight, Saturday March 29, models are suggesting a largely after dark event. Here's an HRRR run for 10pm. Sitting out "off days" like this can often turn surprisingly regretful. hope this isn't one of them.

Tomorrow Sunday March 30 is currently a 10% SigTor outlook. I would be surprised if a long tracking tornado or two doesn't occur. I'd also be surprised if they are photogenic judging by the T-D spreads and LCL heights.

T-D spreads, or Temperature / Dew point spreads or the difference between the two is a good first guest at storm base heights and how visible a tornado might be. Look toward the bottom of the chart (sounding) on the left. The red line is the forecast temperature profile and the green line the dew points. Notice at the bottom the temperature is 69 and the dew point is 67. The "spreads" or difference between the two is very, very small. If this verifies cloud bases would likely be less than 400 meters above the ground. Put that in trees and you got nothing but danger.

Here's another forecast from another location nearby. Notice the TD spreads are a little better... 76 over 69. Still, this suggests cloud bases perhaps around 500 meters. There are numerous other factors to consider, however as of now, this looks like a great chase to sit out... But I said that last week too.

Looks like a chance of severe weather Monday and Tuesday and then a potentially big event on Wednesday. I currently plan to be there. Stay safe chasers and happy hunting!