Channel Update #38 (Aug)

Hi,

The Final Fantasy video is done. It’s uploading as I write this but it will be live by the time this post is up and… yeah, it sure took a long time. Sorry if anyone was waiting and expecting it to be finished sooner. I was expecting it to be finished sooner. I don’t really know how this happened, which is strange because I was not only there every step of the way, but I was also the one making all decisions. Still I started back in early June (at a time when the second channel was still deleted) and it’s now early September, so it took three entire months. Three months where I was focused on nothing else. Nothing came up. Nothing went wrong. I didn’t play any other games. It just took a crushingly long time.

For most of you reading this you’re probably wondering what the big deal is – long videos take long times – and that’s true, but all I can say is: you weren’t there. To me it is a big deal so I’m going to reflect a bit on the whole project. Feel free to read no further if you don’t care about such reflections. A new video is out and I am going to go straight into playing Starfield next and hopefully a video will follow. Still reflections…

Every time I make a video I estimate how long it will take, and how long each stage will take, and how long each game will take, and how much I will get done each day, and so on. Basically, I estimate everything, my estimates are ambitious, and I consistently fall just short of reaching them, which is how I like it. And because I come close and fail in a consistent manner it makes my estimates pretty useful. They’re really more of a perfect case scenario and if anyone were to ask me how long something will take I would give my estimate plus a little bit, where that little bit is like the reality coefficient in my estimation formula. And, overall, I think my formula is good.

This is the first time I have ever been spectacularly wrong though. I really was confident the video would be finished by the end of July, and I was wrong with my estimates every step of the way, and wrong with every updated estimate. Basically I was wrong significantly and repeatedly, and this has really surprised me. It feels like new territory and I wonder if there is some specific cognitive bias in how one inaccurate estimation creates more as people struggle to just accept how wrong they are originally. It’s as if we think “well if I thought it would take six weeks so it can’t take thaaat much longer” despite the ample evidence in front of us pointing to a different conclusion. I’ve always heard people are terrible at estimating project budgets and time frames and I always figured it’s because original estimations are just overly optimistic, and that my more realistic (or pessimistic) mindset will safeguard me. But now I think I’m more fallible than I realized and that the problem goes deeper. I’m also a little bit more sympathetic to George RR Martin. Only a little bit though.

Still the obvious reality is that 16 games is a lot of games and 5 and a half hours is a lot of video. There is no way this could have been done in 5-6 weeks, even if the video was shorter, even if I took more short cuts, even if I worked harder, and so on. I think part of me just really wanted to make a final fantasy video. It’s something I’ve been talking about for a long time, and thinking about for even longer. And then with a new mainline game my resolve crumbled and I almost gaslit myself into thinking a video wouldn’t be that much work. It was a lot of work though. Some other videos have also taken long times but there are often background reasons for why that is, some of which are straight up my fault. The history of MMO’s video took such a long time because I was dragging my feet ‘researching’ while playing more WoW, and I could have easily ‘researched’ for many more months. Meanwhile the History of Games video took a long time but I originally thought it was four videos and I had a long break between editing part one and the rest. To me though this Final Fantasy video feels like the longest I have ever made, and the most consecutive work I’ve ever done, maybe in my entire life.

Ultimately I don’t think spending so long on a single video is a good ‘business decision’ or that it’s particularly enjoyable… and that is an understatement. It’s draining to be working such long hours every day, and it’s frustrating to always feel like you’re behind, and this then makes it harder and harder, causing your speed to slow, causing it to take even longer, making you even more drained and frustrated and so on. I also have a bad habit of neglecting non work related stuff while working because I like not focusing on too much at a time and just dealing with other problems once the video is finished. Sometimes this works quite well, but not for a 3 month video.

My main take away from all this is to just not make videos this long in the future. I said it after the history of games video… and then did the exact opposite, but this time I mean it! Also be even more realistic (pessimistic!) with estimating things.

I will also say that a Final Fantasy video had to happen one day. I knew it since I started the channel and it would have always caused problems whenever I did it (which is why it took 5 years for me to get round to it), but it had to be done. It’s a shame in some ways because I don’t think this video will perform particularly well, as my audience isn’t really final fantasy fans, and I don’t think final fantasy fans will like this video that much, as I care about this series a little too much leading to some more ‘controversial’ opinions. But this video had to be made regardless, and there’s only so short I can keep a video on so many games when I have so much to say.

Also while the video making was miserable, the game playing was not. And playing all mainline final fantasy games in a row was a great experience (for me at least) and there is no way I would have ever done this if not for this video. So there is a big positive to the experience as well, and for me it’s quite a meaningful one.

Also (if it wasn’t obvious) I haven’t played Baldur’s Gate 3 yet. I will get to it eventually though.