Weekly Webinar #75: A Possible Great Filter

The perfect example of how knowledge can be lost is the moon landing program, which is the answer to the incredibly naive question, "why haven't we gone back"? Because it required the collective brainpower of thousands of brilliant minds who were all specialists in a narrow field of expertise. Even if you had the blueprint to reconstruct the Apollo mission, it wouldn't work because the human capital, the great engineering minds who designed and engineered the project are dead and gone

Btw Winston Churchill was also responsible for artificially engineering the Bengal famine of 1942, where tens of thousands of people died in Bengal of starvation, when all their food produce was diverted to England.

Everyone, Did you catch the last conversataion in this video? Actor and CRP talk 'Hollywood' shop. Best CRP ever. Personal history and coaching. If you missed it, go back and listen again: 2:19 to 2:37. Thanks to CRP and Actor.

Hi Gonzalo! Very interesting content. I think ecological meltdown might be an other big threat. I believe you think climate change is bullshit, but why? I would be very pleased if you did a video explaining your position. Thanks in advance and take it easy! :)

Damn Coach, I haven’t been this depressed about the future since I watched the movie The Road, lol. Overall it was interesting to hear this theory, but I think that it would take a colossal apocalyptic event such as a global nuclear war for our civilization to reach such a low point of no return. Anything short of that and I think that humanity will recover, as long as there is profit motive there will be innovation. Think about the fact of how just 15 years ago we didn’t have smart phones, so who knows what else will be invented in the next 15 years. Maybe a way to make renewable energy feasible, or improved uses for nuclear power, who knows. I personally think the future is bright.

Fascinating, I’m binging on the channel. Thanks! CRP

Also, since the Antikythera mechanism was mentioned, I thought people might enjoy this. There is a Youtuber who is recreating the Antikythera device. He is a machining hobbyist. The videos are very well produced. His channel is located here: https://www.youtube.com/c/Clickspring/videos

There is a YouTube channel where a professor from Columbia University breaks down the chances of their being life out in the universe. It is actually pretty fascinating. Located here: https://www.youtube.com/c/CoolWorldsLab.

Coach, are you aware of the Arctic Vault project that is focusing specifically on data (and even seeds) preservation? https://archiveprogram.github.com/arctic-vault/

It's been years since I've read this book, but you should consider reading Graham Alison's book Nuclear Terrorism. It left me with the realization that a nuclear war would be very very very catastrophic to the atmosphere leading to food and water shortages. Not to mention the horrors for the people on the outskirts of whichever cities are destroyed. The people living in downtown San Fransisco, Seattle, LA, (or whichever cities are nucked) would be the lucky ones relative to the people in the outskirts

I’ve been saying for a long time: Economies stay out robust and inefficient, and they grow to be fragile and very efficient. Ie just in time inventory vs holding stock in the back room vs making everything locally and selling it in your shop vs people making what they need themselves. JIT inventory is efficient but if supply lines stop for even a day or two everyone is fucked. Stores that stock inventory use the space leas efficiently, but can keep supplying people for a week or so. Stores that source local products can keep going as long as the local producers can get material, but have a significant limitation on what they can offer. People who make/fabricate evening themselves don’t care about supply lines but that’s a hard and inefficient way to live. This is the natural order. Robustness gives way to efficiency until a collapse and everyone wants robust over efficient. Then it starts over.

It would take a political revolutions, worldwide, to mobilize everything for this. Is there any chance this will happen?

Stephen Hawkins said" Mankind was born on earth. It was never meant to die here. "

Great video. I have long thought we have a window. Humans have a window to reach for colonizing space and immortality. Otherwise, at best, the sun blows up in a few billion years, and we are erased forever. We are in that window now, with the resources and technology to at least start. maybe a space ark or an interstellar space ship or even a robot ship with protected DNA sequences. The robots would raise the first generation, once a suitable planet is found. But as the resources run out, even without a crash or war it will become more and more difficult. And then impossible.

As Hannes put it, rare earth metals aren't rare they are just very thinly spread all over the Earth's crust. Mining them would require destroying large areas of eco systems and living space soiling a lot of water in the process. I think we will inevitably go on to mine asteroids instead of our own habitat. I would be really interested in a Webinar on the economics of asteroid mining and space industrialization including the geopolitics of it. Though, it may be a bit early to speculate on the political aspect.

Tomek

Hey I enjoy your content but the video player on Patreon is a problem.

Eric Dubay

Excellent presentation. Tend to agree with most basic assumptions and conclusions. Changing topics. Why is a segment of the population crazy? In a previous talk CRP guessed that about a fifth to two fifths of the population was on board with: the vax, enforced mandates, restrictions on free speech, .. . . And pretty much all the government suppression we are seeing now. Why? Some pendants liken it to the French Revolution. Hard to understand. * * Without religion people gravitate to - a replacement? Progressivism is that new religion?

Peak oil is less about running out of oil, it's more a energy thing: A new oil deposit is under pressure (there is always some natural gas) so the oil comes out on its own. Later, you have to pump it out/press air down to keep things going. In the last step, you could do fracking or press down hot water to make the rock more pervasive or the oil more liquid. So from a new oil find, you can use almost 100% of the oils energy for non-production related things but later on, this number decreases. A similar process is going on with ore grades: A copper mine 100 years ago mined ore with about 1% copper. Now it is someting between 0.5 or 0.3%. So you need 2-3 times the material (~3 times the energy) to get the same amount of copper. This trend is exponential (0.2% Cu => 5 times, 0.1% => ten times). The thing is: Will we have enough energy? I think yes, but it'll come with a price.

BTW, great videos. Thoughtful content, very well delivered. Kudos to you!

Hi Coach, Just joined you webinar subscription, but have watched your videos for months (maybe years - I lose track, ha). Because of a prior commitment, not going to be able to hear the rest of todays' webinar, but one thing occurs to me in what you've discussed so far; that is the concept of Peak Oil. Perhaps that's something you're already planning to cover, but if we do reach a peak in oil reserves and then a continual decline, that certainly would impact the "wave" and any recovery after the industrial wave breaks.