/234/ Three Articles: Restoration?
Added 2022-01-04 08:00:03 +0000 UTCOn Millennial homeowners, the USA falling apart, and restoration in the UK.
As better-off 30-somethings start to get on the property ladder, does this put paid to 'Generation Left'? Will American decline be accompanied by a second civil war - as China serenely watches on? And does Britain represent a return to the 'End of History'? Is everything becoming boring again?
Articles:
- Millennials Are Supercharging the Housing Market, Nicole Friedman, WSJ (attached)
- A tale of two elites in Washington and Beijing, Gideon Rachman, FT (attached)
- British politics suddenly feels small – and the old order is ‘taking back control’, Julian Coman
Comments
Actually you might want to have a look at the scenario of that game included in the lengthy review here: https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/219608/review-description-counter-manifest
Paul Brewer
2022-01-18 20:28:14 +0000 UTCThe idea of a 'Second US Civil War' seems to have been a matter for speculation at least as far back as 1976, although in that case it had something to do with thinking about how the 'militia tradition' in America, very much on our minds in the bicentennial, would play out. https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/5859/minuteman-second-american-revolution I feel like it was surprisingly prescient given what would happen only a few years later with Gordon Kahl. Russ Roberts, who runs the occasionally interesting, classically liberal/libertarian EconTalk podcast, has also speculated on the possibility of a civil war from time to time, although I couldn't put a date on that. I do know that a non-political message board I visit, which occasionally does have politics talk, first discussed the possibility in January 2016. This is a predominantly 'PMC' group, more Warren than Bernie. Finally, in late 2020, I heard from an unimpeachable source based in Rural Georgia that certain people were stockpiling ammunition. Nothing came of that, of course. I also happen to know from personal acquaintance that the US army has taken a deep interest in screening officers for political views of the 'Q' kind. We ought to be measured about the fears expressed by Gideon Rachman. In 1983, when Kahl was killed, this armed underground was very much a lunatic fringe. We've gradually seen it move over the next forty years towards the mainstream to the point that now it appears to be electing congressional representatives. What might be going on in the state houses is anyone's guess. Is that a precursor for a civil war, probably more in the style of Ireland 1922-3 than 1861-5? Probably the movement needs more support from the armed forces and political elites than it has at the moment, but it's not too hard to construct a scenario where that might arise. The obvious candidate at the moment is a disputed presidential election, where the loser finds a base in the state houses for a Rejectionist Front. But perhaps some random economic event will generate new frictions we haven't foreseen. It could all happen very fast.
Paul Brewer
2022-01-18 20:12:03 +0000 UTCSecond, on George's point that any timeline people might have given to covid ending has long been surpassed: Ahistorical nonsense. Pandemics and plagues have historically lasted up to a decade, and certainly more often than not about 3-5 years. This is not difficult information to learn.
Richard R
2022-01-05 19:34:58 +0000 UTC
