📝🐺 Hwang v Neto | Talking Tactics

Hwang Hee Chan Vs Pedro Neto. A comparison many FPL managers will have made this week. But which one? 


Spoiler, it's not an easy choice, and you'll see that below first hand with the data breakdown below. All stats are taken from fbref or the FPL site. And as is often the case with stats you can make a case for either based on what we've seen this season:


Hwang - Vs - Neto

21 - Appearances - 16

1,535 - Minutes - 1,324

18 - Starts - 15

10 - Goals - 2

0.59 - Goals Per 90 - 0.14

3 - Assists - 9

0.18 - Assists Per 90 - 0.61

13 - Goals + Assists - 12

0.76 - Goals + Assists Per 90 - 0.75

6.3 - xG - 3.4

0.37 - xG Per 90 - 0.23

5.6 - NpxG - 3.4

2.9 - xA - 4.4

0.17 - xA Per 90 - 0.30

8.5 - NpxG + xA - 7.7

0.50 - NpxG + xA Per 90 - 0.53

30 - Progressive Carries - 84

28 - Progressive Passes - 45

87 - Progressive Passes Received - 128

35 - Shots - 32

2.05 - Shots Per 90 - 2.18

12 - Shots on Target - 11

0.70 - Shots on Target Per 90 - 0.75

12.6 - Average Shot Distance (yards) - 16.2

10 - Crosses - 106

4 - Corners Taken - 31

36 - Shot Creating Actions - 68

2.12 - Shot Creating Actions Per 90 - 4.62

75 - Penalty Area Touches - 75

102 - FPL Points - 80

10 - FPL Bonus Points - 8

284 - BPS - 290

112.8 - ICT Index - 125.7

4.9 - FPL Points Per Match - 5.0

8 - FPL Blanks From Starts (3pts or less) - 4

3 - Double Digit FPL Returns - 2


Now if you read all that you may have already decided on your preference or are waiting for me to tell you which one. But there's also a fair chance you've realised what this is already. It's a coin flip ladies and gentlemen. It's a coin flip. 


Hwang is the more likely scorer but Neto is the more likely to return. It would surprise me not a jot if the game receives 1 tweet from the official account and it reads:


Goal - HWANG

Assist - NETO

Wolves 1-0 Sheff Utd


It really feels like it could be that.


So Hwang then, right?


Well maybe not.


In reality this is a 3 game choice for Sheffield United (H), Newcastle (a) and Fulham (H). If they end up playing in GW29, it's a bonus. The run from GW30 to GW35 (which could feature a Double Gameweek of Bournemouth and Arsenal at home in 34) is decent. But it's probably only decent if your choice is firing otherwise you're likely to move. So we have to recognise that this is currently a short-term choice, that ‘could’ turn into a longer-term choice if we're lucky.


It starts with promising news for Hwang, he returned in all of the corresponding fixtures earlier this season (all played between GWs 10 & 13), scoring a brilliant equaliser against Newcastle, assisting at Bramall Lane and scoring a penalty at Fulham (we think he's first choice from the spot but there's a possibility it could be Pablo Sarabia).


But we can't use the 3 previous games as an indicator for who is best, as Neto, who had assisted against Newcastle, pulled his hamstring when in full flight and about to shoot. He therefore missed GWs 11 to 19.


Yet despite that missed period, which you may as well call 10 gameweeks as he made a 10 minute cameo appearance in GW20, only Ollie Watkins (14) has recorded more FPL Assists than Neto (11).


Hwang has 10 Premier League goals. Only 7 players have registered more.


This is a tough choice.


One thing that has changed recently is the loss to injury of Matheus Cunha. The Brazilian won't be back during this 3 game period - that we can be sure of - and so I wondered if there was anything we could read from his absence that would help with a decision.


The answer is not really as last weekend's victory at Tottenham was the first time this season That Cunha hasn’t started in the league.


If only we had someone who was at the game who could tell us what he saw!?


Hi.


On the eye. Neto. All day everyday. He's blistering in full flight and a joy to watch. An xGI of 0.25 isn't terrible and it was his long run upfield from a Tottenham corner that led to Joao Gomes’ deserved winning goal.


Yet Hwang's xGI was higher at 0.36 according to the FPL website. Which is interesting in itself because he missed an absolute sitter from a rebound in the first half at 0-0 and a second glance at Sofascore suggests that one chance alone had an xG of 0.41 (FPL had his game xG at 0.30 + 0.06 xA).


Either way that chance came for Hwang through being in a central position. It was the sort of big chance that Neto is unlikely to have.


Perhaps the solution here lies in where we think the two players will play.


For what it's worth, Wolves actually top my predicted line ups table from all 20 teams this season. I have an accuracy of 93% on predicting their line-ups and as it's a relatively small squad we can all probably correctly guess that the team that lined up at Tottenham will be the same against Sheffield United on Sunday.


So is that Neto on the left, Hwang central and Sarabia on the right? Probably. But I only say probably. And we must be careful not to compare Wolves at Tottenham to Wolves at home to Sheffield United (more on that later).


Instantly I think of Neto's goals this season at Luton and more recently against Manchester United. Those goals were scored by cutting in from the right. The assist at Tottenham, a run down the right on a breakaway; similar in fact to the goal he scored at West Brom in the FA Cup 4th round in the way the attack built from a defensive corner down the right. The United goal, thinking about it more, was also a breakaway from a United corner. The Luton goal was against 10 men and a brilliant solo effort. Can Neto only score if given space?


Is Sheffield United the wrong sort of opposition for Neto? Possibly yes. But they're also piss poor. If Wolves score early, space will be there surely. Low block from The Blades? Almost certainly, but in their last 5 away games Chris Wilder's team have only been behind oncebat half time, and that was to a solitary Manchester City goal. (Yes I know that's surprising!)


Scoring early could be key for Neto specifically.


Wolves have scored 13 times in first halves this season. Only 4 teams have done so less. And it's bleaker when you look specifically at home games with only 6 1st half goals scored in 12 first halves at Molineux.


Sheffield United for the record have conceded 10 goals in the 1st half of their 12 away games. That's less than Tottenham.


You're nearly completely put off aren't you?


You shouldn't be. Attack the fixtures if you want to. Patience may be required more than we might expect however and hence my prediction for Wolves to win 1-0 on Sunday.


Remember as well this is a 3 game decision and space for Neto will be more forthcoming against Newcastle and Fulham in the following 2 weeks.


We have seen Neto play all 3 forward roles this season including as the central forward in some of the games whilst Hwang was at the Asia Cup, but what has been consistent is Sarabia's minutes have nearly exclusively been on the right (right wing, right midfield, right 10. However it’s described he's been to the right) when he's played since the dismal defeat at West Ham on December 17th. And with Hwang back I think we can expect Neto to start from the left again.


Hwang Can also play anywhere across the front, Which does allow Gary O'Neil to move players around if it's not working, but with the makeup of Sarabia, Neto and the unpredictable Jean-Ricner Bellegarde the competition it seems logical with Cunha's injury that Hwang will get this forthcoming period as the central forward. Psychologically that's great for us as Fantasy managers. Forget all the tactics for a moment, he can get chances to score through positioning alone, as with the missed chance at Tottenham last week. However I wouldn't be expecting a massive haul.


These are the FPL returns of the central forwards who have played at home to Sheffield United since Chris Wilder's return, with the highest scoring player in brackets:

GW17: Jackson 6 (Palmer 14)

GW18: Watkins 2 (Luiz 8)

GW20: Alvarez 7 (Foden 12)

GW22: Mateta 2 (Olise 16)

GW24: Adebayo 5 (Adebayo 5/Morris 5)


I'll let you spin the narrative however you want as to whether it's players in deeper positions who are more likely to haul or whether because Hwang is classified as a midfielder one goal could easily result in an eleven pointer and it doesn't matter.


As I always say with stats they can be spun to fit a narrative. Here's another for you, because although we've said it's a 3 game choice between Hwang and Neto you want the haul instantly really; these are Wolves home results this season against teams in the bottom half (they're all over the last 10):

GW15 Burnley 1-0

GW16 Forest 1-1

GW20 Everton 3-0

GW24 Brentford 0-2


That set of results with 5 goals scored in 4 doesn't inspire confidence. Now for what it's worth Hwang got the only goal against Burnley which resulted in 10 points, and he also got an assist against Everton resulting in a 6 pointer and blanked against Forest. He didn't play against Brentford so it's a solid 6 points per game FPL average. Neto only played the Brentford game.


So you could look at it and say it doesn't matter because Wolves never had their best front 3 together in any of those 4. But they don't now either as Cunha limped off early in the opening stages of the Brentford defeat.


In conclusion…


Wolves have shown themselves to be a very good and adaptable team, 10 points and 10 goals scored from their last 4 away from home against Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea and Tottenham is a return even Manchester City would be delighted with. But we are yet to be truly convinced by them when the onus is on them, with the exception of the outstanding victory against Everton, which does act as a reminder of their capabilities.


The Hwang v Neto call is what I said at the start, a coin flip, and if I was flipping a transfer to buy one this week I'd want to go with the one with the bigger upside.


And for me that is Hwang Hee Chan.


That's all for Talking Tactics. Ciao for now.



James