The Red Ripple (Midterm Debrief)
Added 2022-11-09 23:55:25 +0000 UTCMatt and Sam recap and analyze the 2022 midterms — as we know them so far.
Why did Dems do so much better than we thought? Why did the GOP underperform? How cucked were the polls? How happy is Matt that John Fetterman beat Dr. Oz? (Very) What about Blake Masters in Arizona? Was this a bad night for Trump? Was it a good night for DeSantis? How worried should we be about the integrity of American democracy given these results? And how happy should we be that the Democrats managed to stave off the worst possible outcome? Listen while it's hot...
Further Reading:
"Michigan Democrats take state legislative trifecta for first time in nearly four decades," The State News, November 9, 2022
"Abortion rights advocates score major midterm victories across the country," Washington Post, November 9, 2022
"PA’s Next Governor: The Democrat Who Picks Fights With Bad Guys," The Lever, November 7, 2022
"The Needle: Senate and House Forecast," New York Times
Comments
https://t.co/u4y4CxwTN7
mjs
2022-11-30 17:47:34 +0000 UTCAbout 15 years ago the GOP relied heavily on absentee voting among seniors in PA. They ran huge absentee campaigns in assisted living facilities and the local democrats were always trying catch up, its really crazy how much things have changed.
Julia
2022-11-16 21:45:22 +0000 UTCI thought this was pretty good, guys. But would like to push back on one perspective that came up several times. The notion that the Republicans want to cut Social Security and/or Medicare is pretty much not so. Yes, that some of their intellectual types opine about it is easily run across. But that doesn't play at all with their base, at least the still substantial MAGA crowd. Donald Trump made no initiative to affect those programs, and few, if any, of the candidates he supported talked about it. I live in one of the poorest counties of Appalachian southeastern Ohio and can attest that the odious J.D. Vance never did. My MAGA neighbors would have lost their minds if he had. As long as the GOP wants to hang on to their Trump supporters, cutting those programs is a nonstarter.
Bob Scott Placier
2022-11-13 02:24:43 +0000 UTCLoved the ep and just wanted to note Fetterman doesn’t have cognitive issues from his stroke— he only has processing ones—but see others have already done that! Thanks so much for everything, Matt and Sam.
Anne Silver
2022-11-11 23:39:47 +0000 UTCI agree with the other commentators here: nothing wrong with a little punditry. Good episode, thanks! When it comes to prognosticating and thinking about how seriously to take polls, I've found that Michael Moore has been worth paying attention to. He's not the analytical type to be sure, but I think he simply has his ear closer to the ground than the pundits who mostly seem to to feed on each others' takes. He was more than dubious about the so-called Red Wave, and sent out newsletter after newsletter saying so. Unrelated: Matt, you were really terrific on Christopher Lydon's Open Source podcast about the "New Right." I feel like you made every sentence count, and I just wish Lydon gave you even more room. I was also disappointed he didn't press Sohrab Ahmari a lot harder on how his theories (which sounded pretty good) would very specifically translate to policies (which we know would sound a lot less good).
TheRick
2022-11-11 17:25:43 +0000 UTCGreat episode, two comments. You kind of corrected this, but it cannot be emphasized enough that speech function and/or speech processing is NOT the same as cognition. Second comment, although Tim Ryan lost, he clearly had coattails, as I understood just about every house seat in Ohio that could break Dems way, did.
Jennifer Reft
2022-11-11 00:46:26 +0000 UTCNothing wrong with a little excited punditry! Also fwiw, the NY Governor’s last name is pronounced with a hard “c” sound: rhymes with “yokel”
Andrew Saavedra
2022-11-10 18:50:33 +0000 UTCSome Nice Takes
Joel
2022-11-10 14:46:29 +0000 UTCIn terms of DeSantis's performance, I have to think Dem motivation was part of the equation. Four years ago, before his legal troubles manifested, Andrew Gillum only lost the state by 33,000 votes to DeSantis. In that same cycle former felon re-enfranchisement beat both candidates pretty handily. This cycle you have a re-tread former Republican like Charlie Crist at the top of the ticket. The re-enfranchisement in the state not only didn't happen, DeSantis prosecuted people for voting legally a few months ago. I have to think that had to have a chilling effect. The other thing about this cycle that struck me was the contrast between the feeling in 2022 and 2010. In 2006 and 2008, it really felt like we had turned the page on the Bush and Reagan years. The Dems had a ~70 seat majority in the House in 2008. In 2 years it was not only gone, the GOP majority was nearly 40 seats. This current cycle has a very different dynamic. Biden's win in 2020 wasn't accompanied by the same kind of euphoria and hope as 2008 -- more just relief. 2022 doesn't have quite the same feel of doom either as 2010 did. Of course, a lot obviously hinges on the resolution of the remaining open races.
J P 3
2022-11-10 05:26:53 +0000 UTCgood punditry!
Evan Nordgren
2022-11-10 05:09:29 +0000 UTCOne other thing, I'm really frustrated by the coverage of Fetterman's stroke recovery: he's got aphasia, which is something 40% of people living with stroke deal with. People with aphasia have difficulty connecting their thoughts about what they want to say to actually saying it. Doesn't affect how or what they think, it's a processing problem not a cognitive issue.
Jeff Sommers
2022-11-10 03:39:07 +0000 UTCWhen DeSantis is polling high against Biden in 24, we'll be all nostalgic about that old Trumpy demagauging - how innocent and incompetent he was for a fascist
Jeff Sommers
2022-11-10 03:30:29 +0000 UTCY'all are wonderful. This is some top notch reporting here guys and good to have some good news.
Kevin Spicer
2022-11-10 03:04:50 +0000 UTCI hear you Sam, Masters is the absolute worst. Even if he loses it won't be by much, it doesn't bode well for the political future of my state. But maybe Thiel will want a refund and we can move on to the next generic fascist on the assembly line.
mysticwerebadger
2022-11-10 01:38:43 +0000 UTCMy first thought when I saw this was « Well well well look who’s partaking in a bit of punditry. » and I’m glad that was addressed at the top. Lol jk! On a serious note I appreciate that y’all aren’t election cynics. Even though the democrats probably won’t bring about the changes we want to see it is still important to vote as a harm reduction measure. Thanks for digging in!
Elaryn New
2022-11-10 00:25:29 +0000 UTC
