News Burst: May 09, 2017

Hey All,

I hope you’re all very well, and that you had a fantastic weekend (and Monday). I’m hanging in there. Santa Monica’s been great; the weather has been mild, which is nice. Still much to do, however. Seems like there’s a minor obstacle everywhere I look. For instance, I had to have the cable guy come over this morning (he got here at fucking 8:30a!) to fix the cable box I don’t even really want or need. C’est la vie.

If you’re a $10+/month supporter, you’ll get your monthly Q&A video very soon. I hoped to have it up already, but it’s not quite done being edited. I’m going to dinner tonight, but hope to finish the edit this evening, so look for a posting late-night tonight or early tomorrow.

If you’re a $50+/month supporter, your postcards for March are now all out (most of them were already out weeks ago, but about 25 or 30 were left straggling in the move, which I apologize sincerely for). The next batch of postcards (for April supporters) will begin going out later this week.

Oh, I’m playing with an idea for a new short video series that will live on social media. The first video will likely go up tomorrow. I’ll be sure to post here on Patreon about it, but in anycase, keep an eye out for it, and let me know if you think it’s good/useful content. If so, I'll be sure to keep it going as time allows.

President Trump Fires FBI Director Comey: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/us/politics/james-comey-fired-fbi.html

My Take: This is really the only news story worth talking about today (though, as you’ll see below, I’ve touched on a few other subjects as well). Trump informed James Comey today of his firing -- apparently while he was in the middle of giving a speech to a group of FBI agents -- at the behest of his Attorney General (Jeff Sessions) and his Deputy Attorney General (Rod Rosenstein), who both suggested the move in letters that were publicly released following the firing. Released alongside Sessions’ letter and Rosenstein’s letter was Trump’s letter to Comey, signed by Trump, letting him know that he’s being released effective immediately.

This is clearly a major deal, an issue wrought with politics and veiled with gamesmanship. I think that if Trump were to fire Comey -- which, in a vacuum, is totally legitimate, and something that Democrats wanted a while ago, as you’ll remember -- the timing is entirely suspect. Comey and the FBI are actively investigating Trump, his associates, and their possible ties to Russia (and other apparent complications), so when you take this in sequence with the dismissal of other officials also actively investigating or speaking out against Trump, it doesn’t look good.

This story is major, yes, but it’s also relatively nascent, and we need to learn more, including, hopefully, from Comey himself (though whether he’d be willing to talk -- or even be allowed to talk -- remains to be seen). I’m of the mind that Trump is making things worse for himself at every turn, by looking like he has something to hide. Hell, maybe he does. But I’m puzzled by his aggressive grandstanding and his overt willingness to forego reason. I don’t know what else to say about it right now, other than this story is only getting started.

Senator Schumer, Others Call For Special Investigator: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/09/comey-firing-congress-reaction-238180

My Take: I think this is a reasonable request at this point in the game. As I’ve noted before, I feel like the waters are so incredibly muddied at this stage that it’s hard to know what’s up and what’s down, what’s real and what’s fake, what’s true and what’s false. Washington hasn’t been this hyper-partisan in generations -- perhaps in well over a century -- and so guns are drawn and knives are out, and anything that hurts the other party is going to be a victory for the opposition party in question. That, combined with an entirely suspect and untrustworthy media, never allows me to think the absolute worst.

My major question is this, however: Is Donald Trump -- and, more importantly, Reince Preibus, Steve Bannon, Jared Kuschner, and the rest of the gang -- really so dumb as to think that they could fire FBI Director Comey as part of a cover-up? Or is it really just Trump following through on recommendations from his staff, recommendations, mind you, that the Democrats would have been totally fine with months ago, before Trump even took office. That’s why there’s an undoubted political edge here, and why I’m not entirely sure there’s fire. But it’s Donald Trump we’re talking about here, so where there’s smoke… well, who the hell knows.

Between the Democrats, who are unanimously up in arms about this, and even some Republicans upset and expressing dismay, I think a special investigator is a possible outcome, if not a likely outcome. I think that, if Trump has nothing to hide, it’s something he should go along with and support. Otherwise, as you’ll see below, things start getting very dicey, as Trump starts to look more and more like an infamous president with a checkered history.

(Related Story | Congressman Cummings, Others Want “Immediate Emergency Hearings” on Firing: http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/fbi/332646-cummings-wants-emergency-hearings-over-comey-firing)

Is Donald Trump Becoming Richard Nixon?: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article149589289.html

My Take: I’d say no, simply because Donald Trump isn’t nearly as smart, shrewd, or politically motivated as Richard Nixon was. Still, there’s no doubt whatsoever that Trump’s administration is taking a very Nixonian turn -- or at least acquiring a Nixonian complexion -- a mere 100 days into office. It took until Nixon’s second term for things to really start unraveling for him. If Trump keeps up at this pace, he won’t make it to the midterms, nonetheless to a chance at getting a second term. He hasn’t earned himself any favors or good will, and in Washington D.C., that can come back to bite you square in your ass.

The reference in question here is the so-called Saturday Night Massacre, which is when Nixon really ate shit by forcing the firing of a special prosecutor working on the case that would ultimately undo Nixon’s presidency and force him to resign (or be removed): Watergate. The person who brought this up is a well-respected Senator: Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. When your own party is talking like that, you have to start paying attention. Erin noted earlier that I used this exact term before she even heard it on TV. Anyone with a little knowledge of history knows what all of this feels like and sounds like.

But I’ll go back to my original question from the previous passage: Is Trump really dumb enough to think that this will work? Is this some sort of 4D chess he’s playing, calling other folks’ bluff, knowing that there’s nothing there to find? A fact often lost in the weeds these days is that, with all of the bluster, talk, accusations, and bullshit, no one has a single, concrete thread in terms of Trump’s apparent untoward connections to Russia. If they did have that evidence, we’d all know by now. So… who knows.

Are We in the Midst of a Constitutional Crisis?: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/09/comey-trump-firing-is-this-a-constitutional-crisis-215118

My Take: This is one of those ones you should just read. A lot of interesting -- and totally conflicting -- insight from a group of scholars, lawyers, and the like. Give it a gander.

The Flow of Illegal Immigration is Way Down: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/may/9/illegal-immigration-southwest-border-down-70-pct/

My Take: It shouldn’t exactly come as a shock or surprise, but Donald Trump’s anti-illegal immigrant bluster seems to be paying off in very real ways, specifically on the southern border, where illegal immigration is down 70% (particularly in the southwest). That’s a staggering number, a number made even more staggering when you consider that illegal immigration in the latter years of the Obama administration was essentially net neutral. That was already a positive. This, if you’re against illegal immigration (and I am) is a great outcome.

The agencies responsible for stemming the flow of illegal immigrants and capturing ones that are trying to get in or are already here are citing a change in policy as the major driver of their success. That’s somewhat obvious, of course, but as it’s becoming exceedingly rare to hear anything positive about Trump’s presidency whatsoever, it’s worth making note that the border agents, ICE, and the like are in his corner, at least when it comes to his illegal immigrant policy prescriptions. (That shouldn’t be shocking, I suppose, since they overwhelmingly supported his candidacy.)

The story notes that there’s a “seasonal uptick” in illegal immigration as spring moves into summer each year, and that the numbers during those key months will be essential barometers as to the continued success (or lack thereof) of the new immigration policy. Still, this is a little notch in Trump’s belt, and man-oh-man, can he use one.

Mexico Was 2016’s Second Most Dangerous Country: http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/09/americas/mexico-second-deadliest-conflict-2016/

My Take: I suppose this story is somewhat related, as we share our southern border with them (though most illegal immigrants are not Mexican, but rather come through that country). Anyway, this story from CNN surprised me a great deal, because, by death count in conflict, Mexico was last year’s second most dangerous country, with 23,000 lives lost to the raging, deadly, disgusting drug wars happening within the borders of our southern neighbor.

The only more dangerous country than Mexico in 2016 was Syria, where the four-way civil war brewing there claimed the lives of some 50,000 people. Mexico had more war-related deaths than Iraq (17,000) or Afghanistan (16,000), which is really an incredible fact in and of itself. Mexico’s death rate is increasing dramatically year over year: 15,000 people died due to the drug wars there in 2014, and 17,000 died the year following, in 2016. It really is a massive problem, one we don’t see or hear of much in the news. But a real problem, nonetheless.

If you’re curious, Yemen is the fifth most deadly conflict-ridden country on Planet Earth, with 7,000 war-related deaths.

North Korea Plans to Continue Missile and Nuclear Tests: http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-not-afraid-as-it-plans-new-nuclear-test-says-ambassador-in-uk-10870570

My Take: How about a palate cleanser (I’m only kidding). In an interview with the North Korean ambassador to the UK -- Choe Il -- it was revealed that North Korea plans on proceeding not only with its ballistic missile tests (of which they’ve conducted dozens over the years), but that the country also plans to finally follow through with its long-awaited sixth test of a nuclear weapon, something that was anticipated to have happened last month, but didn’t.

Otherwise, the ambassador says very little, at least when compared to North Korea’s usual “we’re going to protect ourselves from American aggression/we will destroy the USA” lines of bullshit. What’s interesting here aren’t only the very real geopolitical realities of the situation -- and how we are distanced from those realities while our friends in South Korea and Japan aren’t -- but how this couples with the domestic nonsense we now have to deal with on a daily basis.

In other words, if push comes to shove on the North Korean peninsula, do we really have faith in President Trump taking care of the problem with a clear head and conscience? I don’t know. Things are becoming more and more complicated and complex by the minute.