$SPY TOP 20 - VERY IMPORTANT NOTE IN BOLD -

Ok I think everyone is aware that the market is quite literally on a knife edge right now, in my previous chart I explain that the $SPX is a more accurate representation of the market and the $SPY is an ETF and for this reason, there is a small margin of error between the both of them, so to mitigate the difference, I have set $409 as the invalid level of the impulse wave.

So I have added in the potential ABC correction if the market falls and I have left in the Wave 5 in green if the market bounces from here.

This is how the market is presenting itself right now and I can see online that the majority of people are divided on this too.

I believe if anyone is definite on their position right now, they are doing their followers a disservice because it is extremely tight which way this can go.

Bears will say that the 200 Day MA has been lost so the trend is down......they also said this in March '23 when the 200 Day MA was lost and it was recaptured 2 weeks later and the market ran very aggressively after that....so let's be sensible here and prepare for both possibilities.

You can see that the original ABC is still on the chart which is the plan if Wave 5 still completes to $498. So we do believe an ABC correction is coming, it either happens now or when Wave completes.

My one exception here is the red 0.618 Fib line at $390. IF the price can hold at this level, we may have an ending diagonal here. Which is only found in Wave 5 and Wave C, it is the same as a leading diagonal which is only found in Wave 1 and Wave A......the problem with identifying a leading or ending diagonal is that they are incredibly difficult to identify when we are in them but when the count completes, it is very obvious.....so the big point about an ending and leading diagonal wave is that the 5 waves in it can overlap each other, so in this case, Wave 4 CAN overlap Wave 2 as the entire structure from October '22 low is a Wave 5.

Yes this is complex and we have covered leading and ending diagonal waves in our lessons but it still does not make it any easier to understand for many people.

I am going to consult my EW Theory colleagues to see if they see the same because I have not seen anyone identify this yet, we may be the first.

So in short, if we lose $409 and the price can hold the 0.618 Fib at $390, we may still get our rally to complete Wave 5 to $498.