The Long Investor

$NIO TOP 20

Added 2024-03-04 13:04:51 +0000 UTC

A lot of members are keen to hear the earnings report tomorrow before the market opens.

The price has stayed below the 200 MA on the 1hr chart since the start of this year and it has been a firm resistance level since the middle of Feb, so the market is telling us that it needs more information to get above this level and the earnings is likely the best option to provide that information right now.

After the previous report in Dec, the share price moved from $7 to $9.60 after a substantial improvement on Q2 earnings, so we need to see a continuation of this tomorrow.

Guidance will also be important too....we also want to see how $NIO taking control of its own factories now and not leasing them from JAC has improved lowering their costs, this may not be evident immediately but an update on this would be helpful.

I have mixed thoughts on whether this earnings report will be a beat as production numbers have not been outstanding, so I am preparing for both possibilities.

A bad reaction from the market and this is coming down to the gap, which completes at $4.74 and the possibility of this continuing its drift down inside this red wedge, which it has been in since the middle of 2023....which is also part of a larger wedge since the middle of 2022.

A positive beat with no surprises and we get above the 200 MA and back up to the important $7 line and try convert this back to support.

Like I've said before, $NIO is on the shelf for me, not adding and not selling....I took the risk on it and I am sticking with it, its less than 10% of my portfolio as my other positions have now grown while this has declined. I'm willing to stick with this as my high risk, high reward play.