$SPY TOP 20
Added 2024-09-15 12:49:47 +0000 UTC$SPY had its best week of 2024 this week after finding support on the 0.5 Fib and firmly using the 0.38 fib at $543 to consolidate, this would be typical of a subwave 4 movement, which would align with $SPY complete Wave 5 in normal conditions at our Wave 45 target at $589.
Making a new ATH and holding above this level may cause euphoria and this is normally associated with people chasing the market, believing that this is a new bull run and this would cause a melt up scenario, which I have this at $632.
A parabolic move in Wave 5 is the last indication for any top, an aggressive drop almost certainly follows next.
If the $SPY rejects at the ATH line which it did at the end of August, then we could be looking at a strong drop next....but with a higher low made last week, I find this unlikely.
The elephant in the room is the FOMC meetings this week on the 17th and 18th, where Powell is expected to announce the first Rate Cut, it's a 50/50 split whether its a 0.25 or 0.5% cut.....the concern is that, if Powell cuts too much (0.5%), he is signally that he believes the labour market is very weak and needs aggressive help....if he only cuts by 0.25%, then the market may feel that it is not enough.....so we don't know which way the market is going to digest this information
That being said, making a new ATH here and holding above $565 will be bullish in my opinion, at least to complete Wave 5.
I am not changing any of my positions leading up to this announcement, I am happy with all of our setups that we are and we have arranged our portfolio to withstand any impacts.
We will only make changes when we see clear rejections and weakness, which we are not seeing at least in the short term right now.
