$SPY TOP 20

Consumer Confidence Data, PCE and GDP will be the big ticket items from this weeks economic data releases and will help confirm whether the Fed made the right decision to announce a 0.5% Rate Cut this week and will help shape their plan for the remaining cuts for the next few months.

$SPY made a new ATH this week and finished the week back testing the breakout level at $568 now, with the level at $565

Like I said a number of times today, next week is statistically the worst performing week of the year and seasonally Sept and October are not healthy months, this month has been a mixed bag, with some record breaking days in both directions....the two variables this year are the Fed Pivot, the first in 4 years and this being an election year too with less than 2 months to go until the election.

So there are a lot on influences right now but the bulls still managed to break to a new ATH and right now we are looking at a retest of this level, so a flat week this week ahead is probably very bullish

$589 is still my target for Wave 5 and holding above this level and I believe there is a strong chance of a melt up scenario to $632.

US economic data releases for the upcoming week, September 23-29, 2024, and their potential impact:

Monday, September 23rd:

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August): A monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressures.  

Tuesday, September 24th:

• New Home Sales (August): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold during the month.

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September): A regional manufacturing survey that can indicate the health of the manufacturing sector.  

• Consumer Confidence (September): An important measure of consumer sentiment and their outlook on the economy.  

Wednesday, September 25th:

• Durable Goods Orders (August): Tracks orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, providing insights into business investment.  

• Pending Home Sales Index (August): An indicator of future home sales based on contract signings.  

Thursday, September 26th:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - 2nd Quarter (Second Estimate): Provides a revised estimate of the overall economic growth rate in the second quarter.

• Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly report on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.  

Friday, September 27th:

• Personal Income and Spending (August): Measures consumer income and spending patterns, offering insight into consumer behavior.  

• PCE Price Index (August): The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.  

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September, Final): A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month, offering a glimpse into consumer confidence and spending intentions.

Impact:

• Housing Market Data: New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales will be closely watched for any signs of a continued recovery or a potential slowdown in the housing market.

• Consumer Data: Consumer Confidence and Personal Income and Spending will provide insights into consumer behavior and spending patterns, which are crucial drivers of economic growth.

• GDP: The second estimate of GDP will be important to confirm the initial reading and assess the overall health of the economy.

• Inflation: The PCE Price Index is a key measure of inflation and will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve.