US 10 YR
Added 2024-10-26 17:47:24 +0000 UTCThis is looking concerning now.
The US 10 YR is doing a good job converting the 200 Day MA to support, it is not confirmed yet but the price finished above the 200 Day on Friday for one test.
Also, since testing support on the red line at 3.6%, the bounce has been in 5 perfect waves, meaning this is an impulse wave.
What this means is that:
If we get a pull back shortly in 3 waves, we could be looking at the start of a new impulse move.....which would mean Druckenmiller and PTJ are correct, that they believe inflation could move higher.
Inflation moving higher would be an absolute nightmare for the Fed, they would certainly have to delay any more rate cuts but may realistically need to consider raising rates again.
We could be in a situation where Earnings are still good and inflation rebounds.
Druckenmiller thinks this is bad for bonds, I think it creates a boiling pot and the market may bounce hard but it creates levels that are unsustainable and the market may not react well to this.
Effectively a melt up and crash down scenario.
Comments
I didn't understand a thing ET said but he sounds so smart so I am buying TLT
Shaleen Deep
2024-10-27 03:29:02 +0000 UTCYeah, I believe it will normalize between 2.7-3.5% range over the next 12-15 months with short term rate lower.
ET
2024-10-26 18:54:10 +0000 UTCSo are you saying you think the 10 year will come down?
Brian
2024-10-26 18:45:36 +0000 UTCJust to add..this could easily be Druckenmiller`s trade. He doesnt necessarily have to short bonds but short swap on yield - steepener.
ET
2024-10-26 18:40:54 +0000 UTCCan I offer additional view...4.2% is still almost 1% lower than FED short term rate. And short term rate usually dictates yields for higher duration (10, 20 yr) as they take time to adjust and are slower to move. Reason is short term view easily changes but long term rarely. 10y & 20y ran down too much, FED was late for cut so in perspective this looks bad but in reality it is normal for longer duration bonds to have higher yields than short term one.
ET
2024-10-26 18:38:18 +0000 UTCThis is what David hunter has been saying for years.. lately saying more and more. Listen to his latest video
Steven
2024-10-26 18:12:25 +0000 UTC
