The Long Investor

$SPY TOP 20

Added 2024-04-14 21:36:26 +0000 UTC

The big question on everyones lips this weekend is: How will the escalated conflict in the middle east affect the market tomorrow?

People will quote that the Israeli stock market ended positive today but let's be clear, this makes very little difference.

Lets look at the chart:

The price action tested the 50 Day MA on Friday after a number of negative catalysts affected the market, Hot CPI, $JPM dropping hard post earnings, Gold and Silver rallying parabolically and bonds the only asset class green, the $VIX sky rocketing and Iran retaliating.....all signs that volatility and concerns were shadowing the market and the market had no choice but to feel this pressure.

Losing the 50 Day MA is a significant move, losing it and rejecting under this level would be even worse, this has not happened yet and may take the entire week to happen.

This is also a busy week for earnings with a number of big players reporting, mainly banks.

What the market does not need now is weak earnings pouring fuel on a very unstable fire in a hay field.

If Israel does not counter with a strike, the 50 Day MA can hold until earnings are released....if they counter, coupled with weak earnings then I can not see how the 50 Day MA is held....which is what we have been waiting for either way.

The only bullish scenario I have right now is one final push up to the 1.618 Fib at $545 and then starting its ABC correction.....or the ABC correction confirms from this week. Either way, the ABC correction is happening very soon.