LESSON: US 10Y and the $TLT Relationship.

I feel this relationship should be explained because both are very relevant to the current market conditions.

We are seeing the US 10 Year moving higher while $TLT and $TMF moves slowly lower, understanding why this happens is important.

The US 10-year Treasury yield and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) have an inverse relationship. This means that when one goes up, the other tends to go down, and vice versa.

Here's why:

• TLT tracks long-term Treasury bonds: TLT reflects the performance of U.S. bonds with maturities exceeding 20 years.

• Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions: As the price of a bond goes up, its yield (the return an investor gets) goes down. This is because investors are willing to accept a lower return in exchange for the perceived safety of government bonds.

So, let's see how this translates to the relationship between TLT and the 10-year yield:

• 10-year yield rises: This often indicates a decrease in demand for bonds, which can happen due to factors like rising inflation expectations or the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. When this happens, the price of TLT (which tracks long-term bonds) typically falls.

• 10-year yield falls: This can signal increased demand for bonds, maybe due to economic uncertainty or a flight to safety by investors. In this scenario, the price of TLT (and long-term bonds in general) would tend to rise.

In short, the 10-year yield can be seen as a benchmark interest rate, and TLT's price movement reflects investor sentiment towards long-term bonds relative to that benchmark.

Here are some additional points to consider:

• This inverse relationship isn't always perfect, and other factors can influence both the 10-year yield and TLT's price.

• The TIP ETF, which tracks inflation-protected Treasury bonds, can also be involved in this dynamic. The ratio between TIP and TLT can be a leading indicator for inflation expectations.

So for us, we need to the US 10 Year to reject and start coming down in order for $TLT to move higher.

I believe this can happen when the Fed announces when they will complete a rate cut.

Even a guidance on when this will happen should suffice.

What the market does not want is the 10 YR moving higher, Bonds going down and the market going down too, which is starting now....so capital is being allocated into other assets, like Precious Metals: GOLD, SILVER and Copper.

This is why having a position in Silver as our Safe Haven is the priority move right now.