$SPY TOP 20
Added 2024-08-11 19:16:30 +0000 UTC$SPY has also formed a bear flag since its large sell off on Monday.
The formation of this bear flag is not a surprise considering the economic data that is out this week:
Tues: PPI
Weds: CPI
Thurs: Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. NY FED Manufacturing Index. PHILLY FED Manufacturing Index
Friday: Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment.
On top of this, we have a number of important earnings releases, although not at the same level as the last 2 weeks.
A surprise CPI print, so if it comes in hot, then the market will react poorly and flush down and we would expect a drop down to the 200 Day MA at $505 over the next few weeks then....otherwise, the price can retest the 50 Day MA at $544.
Cash, Safe Havens and preserving capital is the priority right now, not buying into the hope that the market turns around and chasing bounces....I have added $AMZN, Silver and $ETH this week and that is more than enough.
$AMD is my next target once $120 holds....otherwise $PLTR and $SHOP when they pull back.
That is all I am looking at right now.
The heavily beaten down stocks like $NKE, $INTC and $DIS will be considered once I see support held but I am in no rush right now to go on a buying spree and jeopardise my Cash position that is making +5% for me right now.
Let's keep in the forefront of our thought process that Buffett sold 50% of $AAPL and went to Cash to buy T- Bills.
He now has over $270 Billion in Cash, this is not the actions of a man that is optimistic on the market right now and sees a lot of value on the table.
And remember, staying in Cash saves you money when a position you would have considered starts to fall.
Comments
Totally agree/understand on being cautious on the market. I think it's important to remember there's a caveat with Buffett 'not seeing value' which is 'in businesses that are big enough to make it worth him buying. There's a non-explicit point that he's saying BH has gotten too big to have explosive growth vs. the market. So to an extent, his best strategy is to wait for a cash and be the biggest buyer when everything is unreasonably cheap. But that's more because of their scale than anything. Just my perception of his message.
Nick E
2024-08-11 20:08:30 +0000 UTC
