US 10 YR
Added 2025-04-11 09:34:03 +0000 UTCAt what point does the pressure become too high for the Trump Admin that they must strike a deal with China?
We know that the Bond market is something they are fixated on and believe it did force them to make the 90 Day Postponement deal during the week.
Now it looks like China are selling US Treasury Bills and this will push the 10 YR higher and it is already at 4.4% now
Price is above the 50 and 200 Day MA and above the wedge top line, so the trend is to the upside.
I suspect a higher high above the Jan '25 peak at 4.8% is a warning signal that this is then going to 5%.....and this is danger territory and ultimately destroys everything Trump has been trying to do to lower debt.
China has also retaliated this morning by increasing tariffs to +125%....they are not backing down.
Comments
Phenomenal analysis cap thank you as always. I still don't see a deal in sight with China Specifically, thus I think the near term pressure on equities in particular QQQ will continue regardless of deals with Mexico, Vietnam, etc., which will provide short term, relief, and options to sell in the wave B scenario you've painted for us
Jeffrey Santoro
2025-04-12 12:23:24 +0000 UTCask Grok
Matt Lampkin
2025-04-11 17:22:44 +0000 UTCI think also founds are selling bonds as a part of strategy to sell winners on their books
Pablo
2025-04-11 10:31:11 +0000 UTCThe Fed will step in with QE
Ralph Meissner
2025-04-11 10:19:27 +0000 UTCHi, do you cover the US Dollar? Big move today. Thanks, John
John McCarthy
2025-04-11 09:41:43 +0000 UTCIs there a timeframe / particular date where Trump needs interest rates down? Like the motherload of t bills maturing /needing refinancing at a certain date?
Nigel
2025-04-11 09:37:34 +0000 UTC
